probability

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one-liner

security

trivia

coin flip

uncertainty

is at bottom nothing but common sense reduced to calculus.

The theory of probabilities is at bottom nothing but common sense reduced to calculus. - Laplace, Theorie analytique des probabilities, 1820

is, for the early probablist, not in the event but in the (subjective) expectation of it.

The early probablist had argued that the probabliility of an event occurring in any given populaiton -whether that population be of cards, people or asteroids lay not so much in the event itself as in our subjective expectiaon of it' (Prior in van Loon 2000:107).

is not similar to truth. It does not mean 'coming closer to truth' or 'an inexact imperfectly grounded truth,' but rather, probability is the mere appearance of truth, a pseudo-truth.

It is useful to go back to Descartes not because he restored old objections to the reliability of perception and thereby gave the strongest impetus to modern idealism, but because his distinction between moral and metaphysical certitude pro vided the opportunity to distinguish truth from probability in such a way that 'probable' turned out not to be 'similar to the truth,' not 'coming closer to the truth,' not 'an inexact, imperfectly grounded truth,' but rather the mere appearance of truth, a pseudo-truth. (kolakowski 'husserl... 13-14)

is that which belongs to an entire series, not to an individual event.

He places probability-perception in a historical context which he pairs with the development of mathematics and statistics. He shows that probability belongs to an entire series, not an individual event' (van Loon 2000:21)

is a number between zero and one about which nothing else is known.

is insufficient --- A thousand probabilities do not make one fact.

A thousand probabilities do not make one fact.

is paradoxically structured in that it is probable that many things will happen contrary to probability.

It is probable that many things will happen contrary to probability.

probability, n.All

probability