overconfidence effect

is excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions.

Overconfidence effect: Excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as '99% certain' turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.

is when a person's subjective confidence in his or her judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments.

The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in his or her judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities. (wikipedia)

overconfidence effect, n.Definitions

overconfidence effect